Perceived vs. actual disagreement: How social circles shape climate opinion polarization in Germany (IMAGE)

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Perceived vs. actual disagreement: How social circles shape climate opinion polarization in Germany

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Opinion data from the European Social Survey suggest that the level of disagreement among German citizens about questions related to climate change has increased from 2016/2017 to 2021 and further to 2023. However, this changes substantially if we assume that lenses adapt to how opinions are distributed in people's inner circles. The new method suggests that overall perceived disagreement might be quite different to what pure opinion divergence indicates (blue arrows): it was larger in 2021 and much smaller in 2023 (red arrows). 

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