From late-winter atmospheric circulation to East Asian summer tropical cyclones: Two ocean-mediated pathways (IMAGE)

Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research (OLAR)

From late-winter atmospheric circulation to East Asian summer tropical cyclones: Two ocean-mediated pathways

Caption

Schematic illustration of the delayed influence of the late-winter Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern on East Asian summer tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A positive February PNA is associated with two complementary sea surface temperature (SST) pathways. The ENSO-related pathway involves tropical North Atlantic warming and a rapid transition of El Niño decay, favoring an anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone. The ENSO-residual pathway involves central Pacific cooling, providing an additional route for anticyclone development. Both pathways favor suppressed TC genesis and fewer TCs reaching East Asia during summer.

Credit

Zeming Wu and Chundi Hu, Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research (2026).

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