Figure 8 (IMAGE)
Caption
Figure 8 in the published paper depicts a test of the predictive power of the Stochastic Social Activity (SSA) model developed in this work. Daily deaths data in the Midwest region of the USA have been fitted up to Nov 17, 2020. The epidemic dynamic beyond that date has been projected by our model (blue). One observes a good agreement between this prediction and the reported data (crosses). In contrast, the classical SIR model (red) substantially overestimates the height of the peak, and projects it at a much later date than had been observed. Solid lines represent the best-fit behavior for each of the models, while dotted lines indicate the corresponding 95 percent confidence intervals.
Credit
A. V. Tkachenko, et al., eLife, December 14, 2021
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Original content