A comparative study of energy system transformation toward carbon neutrality in BRICS nations

The BRICS nations, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, represent the world’s major emerging markets. In 2022, their aggregated GDP amounted to about USD 25.95 trillion, accounting for 26% of global GDP. Over the past decade, these economies have grown at an average annual rate of about 2.87%, surpassing the global average of 2.73%. This rapid economic growth has also driven energy demand, with the BRICS nations collectively accounting for about 46% of the world’s total primary energy consumption in 2022.

 

Fossil fuels remain the dominant energy source across the BRICS, representing 50%, 86%, 89%, 82%, and 94% of the primary energy consumption in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, respectively. Notably, coal constitutes a substantial share of the energy mix in India (55%), China (56%), and South Africa (69%). Given their reliance on fossil fuels, the BRICS countries are the major contributors to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the world, accounting for about 45% of global total in 2022. As these economies are expected to continue growing rapidly, their energy consumption is likely to increase further in the coming decades. In this regards, BRICS’ transitioning away from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system will be crucial for achieving the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 ℃.

 

The research team develops carbon emission pathways for each country to meet their carbon neutrality objectives, aligning with both their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and carbon neutrality target year. The CGEM model is used to map out the energy transition routes. Additionally, the study also assesses the financial implications, including the costs of reducing emissions and the necessary investments.

 

The team published their review in Energy and Climate Management on April 3, 2025.

 

“The BRICS countries account for 45% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. Exploring how the BRICS countries can transition to cleaner energy to achieve carbon neutrality goals is crucial for the global efforts to limit temperature rise as stipulated in the Paris Agreement.” said Xiaodan Huang, corresponding author of the paper, associate researcher in the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy at Tsinghua University.

 

The research team conducted a comprehensive review of current research focused on the shift toward low-carbon energy in the BRICS nations. “Most existing studies analyze the BRICS countries’ low-carbon transformation pathway under scenarios of 1.5 ℃ or 2 ℃ with an IAM model, a CGE model, or a bottom-up optimization model. However, few consider international and BRICS countries’ climate targets to analyze their low-carbon transformation paths.” said Xiaodan Huang.

 

To tackle this challenge, the research team developed a specialized energy-economic model tailored for the BRICS nations. This model considers the unique socio-economic development and energy consumption patterns of these countries and is built on the foundation of computable general equilibrium theory. By integrating the BRICS countries' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) goals and their carbon neutrality deadlines, the team mapped out potential carbon emission pathways. These pathways are designed to help uncover the most effective routes for the BRICS nations to transition their energy systems.

 

“By the time they achieve carbon neutrality, the share of non-fossil fuels is projected to reach 85% in Brazil, 77% in Russia, 67% in India, 85% in China, and 82% in South Africa. This transition is critical for reducing CO₂ emissions, enhancing energy security, and fostering economic diversification. Additionally, electrification rates are expected to rise substantially, reaching 60% in Brazil, 65% in Russia, 66% in India, 76% in China, and 79% in South Africa. This increase in electrification is essential for enabling access to clean energy and facilitating the adoption of energy-efficient technologies across sectors.” said Xiaodan Huang.

 

“Economically, the results indicate that investment in the energy sector will range from 0.8% to 3.4% of GDP across BRICS countries. While this represents a significant financial commitment, the mitigation costs, ranging from $250 to $390 per ton of CO₂, are comparable to those of developed nations. This suggests that BRICS countries have the economic capacity to undertake necessary measures to achieve carbon neutrality.” said Xiaodan Huang.

 

“While mapping out potential energy transition pathways is a key focus, it’s not the end goal of this study. Our aim is to use the insights from our research to suggest ways the BRICS nations can collaborate on shifting to low-carbon energy systems. By fostering such cooperation, we hope to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy within these countries, ultimately supporting the global effort to meet the temperature goals set by the Paris Agreement.” said Xiaodan Huang

 

Other contributors include Danwei Zhang, Runxin Yu from the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy at Tsinghua University, and Kaiwei Zhu from the Research Institute of Carbon Neutrality at Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

 

This work was supported by the National Natural Science foundation of China (No. 72140005) and International Joint Mission On Climate Change and Carbon Neutrality.

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About Energy and Climate Management

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