Supporting technologies and pathways for industrial sector decarbonization in China

While China has made notable progress in slowing emission growths, its industrial sector remains the dominant emissions source due to energy-intensive, high-carbon industries that underpin the nation’s economy. In 2020, the industrial sector emitted 7.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide. Decarbonizing the industrial sector is particularly challenging due to its reliance on coal-intensive manufacturing processes and resource-heavy operations. Drawing on official technology catalogs, academic literature, and technical reports on frontier solutions for industrial decarbonization, Yan’s team identifies several key categories of industrial carbon neutrality technologies. These include energy efficiency improvements (EEI), hydrogen-based alternative (HA), clean electrification (CE), feedstock substitution and waste recycling (FSWR), carbon dioxide removal (CDR), digital technologies (DT), and other innovative technologies (OIT). Collectively, these categories form the technological foundation of China’s carbon neutrality strategy for the industrial sector.

Review seeks to provide a comprehensive assessment of industrial carbon neutrality technologies in China. It provides an overview of foundational technologies and recent advancements in five key industrial sectors including steel, cement, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and coal-chemical industries, with particular emphasis on identifying cross-cutting technological solutions that are broadly applicable across sectors. Based on an extensive review of the literature on technological development, Yan’s team outlines the projected development trajectories and anticipated application shares of key carbon neutrality technologies. It further evaluates their potential contributions to industrial emission reductions by considering the maturity and mitigation characteristics of each technology. In addition, it examines the relevant policy frameworks that support the future low-carbon transformation of China’s industrial sector. To enhance the reliability and accuracy of the findings, the study incorporates expert consultations and insights from industry associations, verifying the current state of technology through detailed evaluations. By doing so, it seeks to offer valuable insights for shaping management strategies and advancing research on carbon neutrality pathways within the sector.

“We considered five major industrial sectors and classifies technologies based on the characteristics of industrial carbon neutrality technologies. From the perspective of technical form, a total of 53 representative technologies in 7 categories, including energy efficiency improvement, hydrogen energy, electrification, raw material substitution and waste recycling, and digitalization, are formed, which provide a systematic basis for the subsequent industry technology path and the general industrial path based on the maturity characteristics of different technologies.” said Gang Yan.

Specifically divided into: Energy efficiency improvement Technologies (EEI), Hydrogen alternative technologies (HA), Hydrogen alternative technologies (HA), Feedstock substitution and waste recycling technologies (FSWR), Carbon dioxide removal technologies (CDR), Digital technologies (DT), Other innovative technologies (OIT).

Overall, achieving carbon neutrality in China’s industrial sector demands long-term, coordinated efforts focused on advancing transformative low-carbon innovations. Key priorities include optimizing industrial chains, developing new energy sources, and advancing cutting-edge pollution and carbon reduction technologies.

From 2025 to 2035, as industrial carbon emissions are expected to peak in the near term, a downward trajectory is anticipated through 2035, underpinned by key mitigation measures including EEI and FSWR technologies.

From 2035 to 2050, the industrial sector must transition toward a new technological paradigm, centered on electricity and hydrogen-based production systems. This shift highlights the importance of enhancing coordination between the power system and industrial electricity demand, particularly in terms of renewable energy integration, system flexibility, and grid stability.

From 2050 to 2060, carbon removal technologies are expected to serve as a crucial safeguard for achieving net-zero emissions through large-scale deployment. To support this transition, further technological optimization will be required, with advanced low-carbon innovations likely to drive systemic industrial transformation.

In terms of potential policy support, key measures may include implementing demonstration projects for low-carbon and zero-carbon solutions to accelerate the application of advanced technologies and standards. Strengthening global cooperation, improving domestic policies, and enhancing market mechanisms, particularly the economic instruments within the carbon market, will help drive the widespread adoption of low-carbon technologies, support China’s leadership in global climate governance, and accelerate the green transformation of its industrial sectors.

Other contributors include Li Zhang, Shuying Zhu, Bofeng Cai, Daiqi Ye, Shuguang Qi, Bing Li, Jie He, Gang Xie, Ziwei Wang, Chengliang Hao.

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 72140008 and 72234002), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFC3702903).