Job demand, not just skills, shapes public attitudes on immigration

A new study has found that demand for jobs could be just as important as skill level in how people feel about immigration.

Researchers found members of the public are as likely to grant visas to fruit and vegetable pickers and care home workers as they are to lawyers or office managers.

The research published in the Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies suggests the public is willing to accept lower-skill workers in jobs where demand is high at least as much as high-skill workers in occupations where demand is lower.

The research was carried out by researchers from the Universities of Southampton, Strathclyde, Amsterdam, Essex, Glasgow, Brunel, Kobe, and Waseda.

“In sectors facing acute labour shortages, public resistance to immigration may be lower than is commonly assumed,” says Professor Jason Reifler, a coauthor on the paper from the University of Southampton.

“The findings challenge the idea that skill level alone dictates how people feel about immigrants.”

The research team surveyed a representative sample of 646 people in England and 1,501 people in Japan. Both countries have low birth rates and face worker shortages. But while immigration has been a highly charged issue in England, in Japan it has been deliberately downplayed by politicians.

Participants were presented with different hypothetical profiles of immigrants and asked if they should be granted a visa to come and work in the country.

The profiles represented high-skill high-demand occupations, such as doctors or computer programmers, lower-skill low-demand jobs, such as telemarketers or retail salespeople, and occupations where the level of skill was at odds with the level of demand.

Citizens would grant visas to close to 70 percent of high-skilled migrants in both countries. Support fell to the low to mid-60s in Japan and mid-50s in England for lower skill migrants.

Granting visas to those in high-demand occupations was also near 70 per cent in both England and Japan, with similar drops in support for low-demand professions.

High-skilled high-demand workers received the most support overall and lower-skill low demand workers received the least. Interestingly, lower-skill high-demand workers had slightly higher levels of support than high-skill low-demand workers.

Prof Thomas Scotto from the University of Strathclyde, a coauthor on the paper, adds: “In England, occupation was far more of a factor in granting a visa than country of origin. Unsurprisingly, support is much lower for migrants approaching retirement age.

 “As expected, those with higher trust, left-leaning ideology and a degree generally showed greater support, but the overall pattern regarding skill and labour market demand was consistent across all groups.”

Riku Kawakami, a recent graduate of the University of Glasgow and coauthor on the paper commented: “The results reveal a more nuanced picture than in often presented in the media and show that a public debate about immigration doesn’t have to be as contentious as it has become in England or remain ‘in the shadows’ as it has in Japan.”

Who Gets In? A Conjoint Analysis of Labor Market Demand and Immigration Preferences in England and Japan is published in the Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies and is available online.

This research was supported by a joint grant from the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

Ends

Contact

Steve Williams, Media Manager, University of Southampton, press@soton.ac.uk or 023 8059 3212.

Notes for editors

1. Who Gets In? A Conjoint Analysis of Labor Market Demand and Immigration Preferences in England and Japan is published in Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies and is available here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1369183X.2025.2545432
2. For Interviews, please contact Steve Williams, Media Manager, University of Southampton press@soton.ac.uk or 023 8059 3212.

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