Grouped climate solutions for better production: Science listening to West African farmers

The rain delays, sorghum withers; when a storm finally breaks, complaints rise again. To break this cycle of uncertainty, scientists from the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, INERA, and the University of Ghana conducted the first large-scale survey on agricultural climate services in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, and Senegal. Published on July 9, 2025, in Frontiers in Climate, the study analyzes the expectations of 1,212 farmers and charts a credible path to turn weather reports into a profitable investment. Lead researchers include: Adama Ouedraogo, Mathieu Ouedraogo, Irene S. Egyir, Peter Läderach, Akwasi Mensah-Bonsu, and John Baptist D. J. Jatoe.

Data that speaks farmers’ language  

Under the West African sky, the weather has become the determining factor of every farming season. One hundred percent of respondents reported experiencing drought in the past decade; one in two has seen lowlands flooded by unexpected rains, and more than a third recalls harvests scorched by heat waves. Add to this the winds that flatten millet, the gusts that blow off granary roofs, and the pests that proliferate after late rains. The result: farmers face impossible bets—should they sow early to catch rare rains or delay planting and risk missing the market window? 
Yet when a reliable forecast arrives on time, the benefits verge on an economic miracle. Studies in Niger and Ethiopia show that a simple seasonal SMS, combined with advice on which variety to plant, can boost gross margins by over 20% per season.  

But the survey reveals an unexpected gap: barely one in ten farmers relies on scientific information; most still watch the flowering of the néré tree, test early-maturing varieties, or move their herds to lowlands to limit losses. 
The issue is not the lack of weather data—it exists—but the absence of local anchoring: messages in French where Bambara is spoken, forecasts sent after the hoe is already stored, discouraging subscription fees. This information divide is compounded by an illiteracy rate of nearly 74% in Burkina Faso and often empty cash reserves, without which advice remains a dead letter. In these conditions, weather is seen as a diagnosis without a prescription: useful, but powerless if not paired with climate insurance and input credit. The study draws a clear conclusion: with the right financial support, rain becomes an ally rather than a threat. 

Decoding farmers’ preferences: From bundle design to choice hierarchy 

To untangle what producers truly want, the researchers created a choice experiment worthy of a traveling lab. Five “bundles,” mixing weather forecasts at different time scales, seed or plant-health advice, drought-indexed insurance, microcredit, and market information, were presented to 1,212 farmers. Each participant evaluated multiple scenarios, selected their preferred package, and chose their favorite delivery channel: SMS, community radio, or interactive voice server. 
The vote revealed a clear winner: Bundle 4—combining daily weather, tailored seed advice, drought insurance, and seasonal credit—captured 45% of preferences. The minimalist, free Bundle 0, without weather data, drew only 22%. Regional nuances stand out: in Mali, producers favor varietal expertise to secure planting; in Ghana, insurance drives decisions; in Burkina Faso, access to credit weighs heavily in cash-strapped farms. 
Econometric models confirm that the perceived value of a service rises as information becomes more frequent and prescriptive: “plant on June 15, use variety X, fertilize at rate Y.” In contrast, weekly forecasts or generic Sunday radio programs barely influence decisions. Despite language barriers, SMS remains the most reliable messenger; its low cost and speed offset high illiteracy, especially when paired with clever pictograms translating clouds and raindrops into clear images. 
This fine-tuned approach even quantifies “willingness to pay”: one day of ultra-local forecasting is worth an average of USD 0.70 to a Senegalese farmer, while drought insurance represents USD 1.30 to a Ghanaian peer. Better yet, these amounts vary by crop (irrigated rice tolerates more risk than rainfed millet) and by farm size, suggesting tiered pricing and targeted subsidies to drive massive adoption. 

The winning bundle: farmers want a combination of short- and long-term insights 

Bundle 4 stands out because it unites two key levers: anticipation and protection. Adding a USD 1,000 loan raises the likelihood of adoption by 39%, yet even without this incentive it remains the favorite. Drought, viewed as public enemy number one, underscores the point: when researchers simulate its doubling over the next decade, nearly 60% of respondents flock to Bundle 4. In practice, daily weather tells them when to sow, insurance promises compensation if clouds fail, and the loan finances seeds, fertilizer, or labor. 
Farmers also see the circular logic: precise weather data boosts the relevance of insurance, which reassures lenders in case of default, unlocking low-interest credit. No surprise that 62% cite forecast reliability as the top criterion before signing a loan. This interaction echoes index-insurance trials in Senegal’s peanut basin: without granular weather data, trust erodes, policies sell poorly, and banks hold back. 
Bundle 4 attracts for another reason: cost sharing. Instead of paying three separate subscriptions, the farmer pays one fee; the provider, in turn, spreads satellite data collection, SMS dispatch, claims management, and loan administration over a single client base. In projected models, when national meteorological services, insurtech start-ups, microfinance NGOs, and input suppliers join forces, the marginal cost of each service can fall by 40%. Integration is not just convenient for users—it creates economies of scale that secure provider profitability. 

From Results to Action: Six Priorities for Policy and Social Enterprise 

 At the end of the survey, one truth stands out: for weather to become a lever for smallholder action, it must go well beyond a simple radio bulletin. The effectiveness of a climate service depends on its ability to fit into a full support ecosystem tailored to field realities and family-farm constraints. Researchers identify six strategic priorities for governments, social enterprises, NGOs, and private operators. 

• Invest in prescriptive information 

Farmers need useful, contextual messages that help them decide here and now. An alert specifying the optimal sowing date or watering time is worth far more than a vague forecast, generating the highest marginal utility. 

• Link insurance and credit 

Insurance protects against risk, credit finances adoption of technical advice. Together, these levers let farmers test, invest, and innovate without fear of total loss—the clearest leverage effect observed in the survey. 

• Diversify delivery channels 

SMS works but is not enough. Interactive voice reaches low-literacy audiences, including nomadic herders. Mobile apps can appeal to youth seeking digital, personalized solutions. 

• Segment offerings by crop and profile 

An irrigated market gardener has different needs from a lowland rice grower or a rainfed cowpea producer. Modular packages adapted to context drive better adoption. 

• Integrate local knowledge and endogenous practices 

All respondents still observe traditional signs—bird behavior, tree flowering, wind direction. Recognizing these cues and linking them to scientific data strengthens service ownership. 

• Build a sustainable business model 

Differential pricing, targeted subsidies for the most vulnerable, and a public–private partnership approach are key to reducing costs without compromising quality. The goal: make these services viable in the long run. 

The authors recommend firmly embedding Bundle 4 in national policies while maintaining a free Bundle 0 for universal access. Governments can subsidize initial insurance premiums, telecom operators can offer climate SMS at social rates, and research centers can refine forecast precision down to plot level. In West Africa and beyond, this strategy would put farmers back at the heart of the alert and action system. 

For details on methodology, full results, and policy implications, read the complete article in Frontiers in Climate: Frontiers | Climate services bundles preferences of smallholder farmers in West Africa: a stated choice modelling.