The combined impact of climate change and conflict “can produce synergistic effects, leading to more severe and complex outcomes,” warn experts in The BMJ’s climate issue today.
From 1995 to 2015, more than 10 million child deaths were attributed to conflict, while women of reproductive age in high intensity conflict zones experienced mortality rates three times higher than those in peaceful areas, they explain.
Additionally, over 60,000 heat related deaths occurred in 32 European countries during both the exceptionally hot summers of 2022 and 2024, with women substantially more affected than men.
Beyond direct loss of life, climate and conflict hazards also threaten health indirectly, by damaging health infrastructure and disrupting supply chains, as well as by reducing access to food and essential services, escalating the risk of undernutrition and spread of infectious diseases.
They say climate action—both mitigation and adaptation—is critical for tackling climate related risks to health, but conflicts often disrupt these efforts and divert resources away from climate priorities.
Mitigation efforts—critical for reducing long term climate change risks—face similar challenges. Following Russia’s invasion, for instance, Ukraine’s mitigation investments were substantially reduced as funds shifted to war and reconstruction.
What’s more, military activities are themselves a major, but under-reported source of greenhouse gas emissions, they add, conservatively estimated at 5.5% of the global total, with the United States as the largest contributor.
“To promote sustainable development and peace in a changing climate, decision makers—from local to international—must recognise the interplay between climate, health, and conflict and commit to scaling up climate action including in fragile and conflict affected states, “ they write.
Science can also play a vital role in supporting decision making, they say.
One promising example is the Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index, which identifies areas where climate and conflict hazards intersect with social vulnerabilities, including health, and could reinforce each other.
“Only by integrating climate action with conflict prevention and peacebuilding can we disrupt the vicious cycle of escalating climate impacts, deteriorating health, and rising instability. Strengthening health systems must be central to these efforts,” they conclude.
Journal
The BMJ
Method of Research
Commentary/editorial
Subject of Research
People
Article Title
Tackling the complex links between climate change, conflict, and health
Article Publication Date
5-Nov-2025
COI Statement
BŠ is a (co-)lead of the FutureLab-Security, Ethnic Conflicts and Migration at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (since 2020), (co-)principal investigator of the Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index within the Preview project funded by the GFFO (2022-25), co-investigator of the Weathering Risk project funded by the GFFO (2020-2023), and collaborator on otherclimate and conflict research projects funded by German Foundation for Peace Research (2022), UK DFID, World Bank and UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) (2020-21), Heinrich Boell Foundation (2021-2025); BŠ is a member of the Advisory Board to the Federal Government for Civilian Crisis Prevention and Peacebuilding. AH is a principal investigator Pathfinder Initiative 2020-25, co-investigator Sustainable Healthy Food Systemsresearch programme 2017-23,co-investigator Complex Urban Systemsfor Sustainability and Health (CUSSH) 2017-23, and collaborator on several other climate and health research projects, all funded by the Wellcome Trust, with additional funding from the Oak Foundation for the Pathfinder initiative; reportsroyaltiesfrom Cambridge University Press; hasreceived travelsupport from the World Health Organization and Human Frontiers Science Program; 2022-24 member, Cool Roofstrialsteering committee Nouna Research Centre, Burkina Faso/University of Heidelberg; 2023-24 co-chair International Advisory Committee, NIHR Clean-Air (Africa) Global Health Research Unit; 2023 member Independent Advisory Group, Collaboration for the Establishment of an African Population Cohort Consortium (CE-APCC); 2019-22 co-chair InterAcademy Partnership, Climate Change and Health Working Group; US National Academy of Medicine Climate Grand Challenge Steering Committee 2023-present; chair, SOSCHI Expert Advisory Group,Office of National Statistics 2022-present;co-directorWHOCollaborating Centre on Climate Change, Health and Sustainable Development, LSHTM 2020-2024.