China can meet its rapidly growing cooling demand without heating the planet

China’s rising demand for cooling doesn’t have to drive rising temperatures. A new study shows how rapid shifts to cleaner refrigerants and high-efficiency technologies could cut cooling-related climate impacts to near zero by mid-century.

China manufactures more than 80% of the world’s room air conditioners and uses roughly half of them domestically. Cooling already accounts for about 15% of national electricity demand, and consumption is expected to rise as urbanization, higher incomes, and climate change increase reliance on air conditioning and refrigeration. Without new policies, the country’s cooling sector alone could add 0.025 ± 0.005°C to global warming by 2060 due to ongoing leakage of high–global warming potential (GWP) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and electricity use that remains partly dependent on fossil fuels.

The new study published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science shows that China can significantly limit this impact by combining a rapid transition to low-GWP refrigerants with widespread adoption of high-efficiency cooling technologies. This integrated approach could phase down cumulative HFC consumption by 12.6 ± 0.4 Gt CO₂e from 2022 to 2060, an amount equivalent to more than 80% of China’s current annual greenhouse gas emissions, while avoiding 4.1 Gt CO₂ through efficiency improvements and reducing major air pollutants. Together, these measures could avoid up to 0.015°C of global warming by 2060 relative to a business-as-usual trajectory.

The study offers the first integrated, bottom-up national assessment of China’s stationary and mobile cooling systems and cold-chain refrigeration through 2060. Meeting Kigali Amendment commitments would already reduce 9.2 ± 0.3 Gt CO₂e of HFC consumption, but an accelerated transition would achieve much deeper reductions. Under this pathway, China would phase out nearly all new HFC-based equipment by around 2040, deliver an additional 3.4 ± 0.1 Gt CO₂e of cuts beyond Kigali requirements, and save 19.6 PWh of cumulative electricity use – about twice the country’s total electricity use in 2024. With continued power-sector decarbonization, cooling-related emissions could approach zero by mid-century.

“The accelerated pathway shows that China can reduce the climate impact of its cooling sector to near-zero levels by mid-century,” explains lead author Pengnan Jiang, a PKU–IIASA Postdoctoral Fellow. “Rapid refrigerant transition paired with major efficiency gains is vital for achieving national carbon-neutrality goals.”

Under this faster pathway, combined HFC and CO₂ emissions from the cooling sector could fall by around 70% by 2050, exceeding the COP28 Global Cooling Pledge target. As the world’s leading producer of cooling equipment and a key actor in global supply chains, China’s policy decisions will strongly influence international market trends.

“China’s actions will shape the global cooling landscape,” notes coauthor Pallav Purohit, a senior research scholar in the IIASA Energy, Climate, and Environment Program. “Accelerated efforts will spur innovation, reduce costs, and yield climate benefits worldwide.”

Achieving these gains, however, will require overcoming several hurdles. Domestic production of ultra-low-GWP refrigerants such as HFO-1234yf and HFO-1234ze remains limited, and the shift to mildly or fully flammable alternatives will require updated safety rules, improved certification systems, and extensive technician training. Refrigerant management remains weak, with recovery rates below 3% and insufficient capacity for recycling and destruction. Regional variations in the carbon intensity of electricity generation also affect the potential benefits of improved efficiency.

“Scaling up low-GWP refrigerants, strengthening efficiency standards, and improving end-of-life refrigerant management must advance together if China is to unlock the full mitigation potential,” Purohit emphasizes.

Cooling is indispensable for health, productivity, and economic development, especially as extreme heat intensifies. The authors highlight that a coordinated policy approach covering refrigerant transition, energy efficiency, and full life-cycle management can secure durable climate and air quality benefits.

“Cooling is essential for wellbeing and economic progress. Our findings offer a roadmap for meeting rising cooling demand without warming the planet,” Jiang concludes.

Reference
Jiang, P., Purohit, P., Xiang, X., Chen, Z., Bai, F., Zhao, X., Zhang, X., Hu, J. (2025). Cooling China without warming the planet: climate and co-benefits of HFC phase-down. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01289-1

About IIASA:
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first century. Our findings provide valuable options to policymakers to shape the future of our changing world. IIASA is independent and funded by prestigious research funding agencies in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. www.iiasa.ac.at