Global burden of elderly patients with pancreatitis increases

Among the great advancements of the 20^th century has been the increase in life expectancy as a result of the rapid increases in standards of living across the world. Unfortunately, the elderly are more likely to have health issues that affect the proper function of various organs. These conditions can put a strain on caregivers, public health systems, and national economic growth.

Pancreatitis, or inflammation of the pancreas, is one such condition. It can cause sudden abdominal pain, nausea, jaundice, and shock. In elderly patients, pancreatitis is often accompanied by other systemic conditions, like heart disease or diabetes, which make treatment more complicated and recovery more difficult. Understanding how the rates of pancreatitis among the elderly has changed over time will help countries and intergovernmental agencies address the needs of aging populations more effectively.

A team of researchers from the Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, China, has analyzed global trends in the incidence of pancreatitis and pancreatitis-associated deaths. Led by Professor Dechang Chen and Professor Jiao Liu, the team used data from the 2021 edition of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2021). Their findings were published online in the Journal of Intensive Medicine on December 24, 2025.

Describing the motivation for this research project on pancreatitis incidence, Prof. Chen says, “Most previous studies have focused solely on national or regional levels. In addition, results from descriptive analyses might be influenced by interactions among age, period, and cohort effects.” He adds that, by using GBD 2021 data, “We seek to provide a solid foundation for developing scientific and effective prevention and intervention strategies.”

The team looked at the incidence of pancreatitis among people aged 65 or older in 204 territories listed in GBD 2021, and across six evenly spaced periods between 1992 and 2021. The team conducted further regional and demographic analyses, studying patterns of incidence across 21 geographic regions and five sociodemographic index quintiles.

The team found that, while the number of pancreatitis-associated deaths among the elderly had grown between 1992 and 2021, the number of pancreatitis cases had fallen sharply. More importantly, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) per 100,000 had fell from 100.21 in 1992 to 85.20 in 2021. So did the age-standardized death rate per 100,000 (ASDR), from 9.01 to 7.97.

However, these trends were not uniform across socioeconomic development levels. Countries in the top two SDI quintiles saw significant reductions in ASIR, while the lowest quintile saw a significant increase. Countries in the middle SDI quintiles saw low ASIRs from 1992 to 2006, and a gradual increase from 2007 onwards. Gender also appeared to play a role, with women having higher ASIR than men in countries in the second SDI quintile, but not in the first and third quintile countries. “Factors such as population growth and migration, changes in alcohol consumption and smoking patterns, rising obesity rates, an enhanced understanding of the metabolic causes of pancreatitis, and improvements in imaging techniques and quality may collectively explain the differences in such trends,” says Prof. Liu

Prof. Chen remarked on the two opposing factors revealed by this study: “Our results indicated that the global ASIR and ASDR for older-age pancreatitis are expected to decrease from 2022 to 2044. However, the numbers of incident cases and deaths are expected to increase, which might also be related to population growth and aging.”

However, these trends provide a valuable reference point for public health systems around the world to prepare diagnostics and treatment facilities in anticipation of the increasing number of elderly patients with pancreatitis. Focused public health messaging and interventions that target elderly populations at risk of pancreatitis could also help reduce ASIR, ASDR, and total disease burdens. As Prof. Chen concludes, “These findings further highlight the significant challenges that exist in controlling pancreatitis among older adults, providing direction for policymakers to adopt strategies based on regional characteristics and to improve equity in the management of pancreatitis in older populations.”

About Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine

Founded in 1952, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine is one of China’s top medical universities and has trained over 70,000 medical professionals. The university has 25 colleges and 14 affiliated hospitals. Over 4,000 undergraduate and over 7,500 postgraduate students are currently enrolled at the university. The university conducts cutting-edge medical research and training programs and has received the highest “A+” ranking from the Ministry of Education. Globally, the university is ranked #56 by Times Higher Education in the 2025 rankings.

About Professor Dechang Chen from Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, China

Dechang Chen is a Professor and Director of the Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, China. Prof. Chen’s work focuses on critical care medicine, septic shock, and gut dysfunction, and he has authored 105 academic publications. Prof. Chen sits on the boards of several prominent committees within the Chinese Medical Association as well as other medical bodies. He is Co-Editor-in-chief of the Journal of Intensive Medicine, and serves on the editorial boards of several prominent national and international journals.

About Professor Jiao Liu from Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, China

Jiao Liu is an Associate Professor and Vice-Director of the Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, China. Prof. Liu’s work focuses on critical care medicine and she has authored more than 43  academic publications.