Galápagos under threat: a comprehensive look at the natural hazards they face

What do volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tropical storms have in common? More than it seems—especially when they occur on fragile volcanic islands like the Galápagos. This iconic archipelago, world-renowned for its unique biodiversity, is increasingly under threat from multiple natural hazards, many of which do not act in isolation. A new study led by researchers at the Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral (ESPOL) presents an innovative multi-hazard analysis framework aimed at helping prevent disasters and protect both human communities and their ecosystems.

A threat never comes alone

The study proposes a systematic methodology to understand how different types of geological, seismic, and climatic threats interact in the islands. Rather than analyzing events like eruptions, earthquakes, or extreme rainfall in isolation, the authors present an integrated vision that considers the cascading effects a single event can trigger.

For example, a volcanic eruption involves more than just lava and ash. It can lead to forest fires, acid rain, ground deformation, and even tsunamis if part of the volcano collapses. These effects, in turn, can contaminate water sources, damage infrastructure, harm human health, and threaten endemic species. This chain reaction of impacts is what’s known as a multi-hazard phenomenon.

The team used over 70 years of historical data on eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, rainfall, and ocean swells recorded in the Galápagos, and combined it with information on ecosystem services and socio-economic factors. This allowed them to build a framework that visualizes how one initial hazard can lead to multiple interconnected consequences.

Where nature and society intertwine

Another key contribution of this work is the integration of the socio-ecological component. It’s not just about studying volcanoes or earthquakes from a physical perspective but also analyzing how they affect the daily lives of island residents: the water they drink, the food they grow, the tourism that drives the local economy, and the habitats of unique species such as giant tortoises or pink iguanas.

The framework helps identify which ecosystem services are at risk from different types of threats. For instance, an intense drought linked to the La Niña phenomenon may cause fires that destroy forests, reducing air quality, threatening endemic species, and limiting the soil’s ability to retain water. Similarly, an earthquake or tsunami can impact transportation routes, drinking water supply, or tourism infrastructure.

The study’s findings highlight that risks are not just natural, they’re also social and economic. Their impact largely depends on the vulnerability of the coupled human-natural system.

A tool for urgent decision-making

This multi-hazard framework is not just an academic exercise. It’s designed to be a practical tool for risk management institutions such as the Red Cross, local governments, and Ecuador’s ECU911 emergency system. Its purpose is to support preventive planning, mitigate impacts, and reduce response times during emergencies.

Moreover, the model is adaptable. While it was applied to the specific context of the Galápagos, it can be replicated in other volcanic islands around the world, with parameters adjusted to local conditions.

The researchers also emphasize the need to strengthen local data collection and inter-institutional collaboration, as seen in the “Tsunami Ready” project in the Galápagos. Although that program has improved tsunami preparedness, other hazards still lack this kind of comprehensive attention.

Conclusion

In the context of climate change and increasing human pressure on ecosystems, understanding how natural hazards interact is more urgent than ever. This study shows that addressing risks in isolation is no longer enough. A systemic approach—integrating geological, environmental, and social components—is needed to protect fragile and invaluable places like the Galápagos Islands.

The future of the islands depends on our ability to anticipate the unpredictable. And tools like this multi-hazard framework can make the difference between disaster and resilience.