Study reveals how small farmers in Brazil respond to climate change—and why their current approach risks long-term sustainability

Small farmers in Brazil are facing the harsh realities of climate change head-on, but a new study published in the Strategic Management Journal warns that many of their strategies may be unintentionally deepening their vulnerability.

Led by Dr. Lucrezia Nava, Assistant Professor of Sustainable Business Management at the University of Exeter Business School, and co-authored by Dr. Jorge Chiapetti and Dr. Rui Barbosa da Rocha of Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, and Dr. Maja Tampe of Universitat Ramon Llull, the study explores how smallholder cocoa producers in Southern Bahia respond to climate threats such as severe droughts and economic crises.

“Large and medium-sized organizations in high-income countries often continue business as usual, likely because they have abundant resources and face fewer immediate risks,” explains Dr. Nava. “In contrast, small organizations in middle- and low-income countries are disproportionately exposed to climate change effects and have far fewer resources to adapt. This creates extremely difficult trade-offs between short-term survival and long-term sustainability.”

The research team conducted four survey rounds with 3,091 cocoa producers between 2015 and 2019, supplemented by in-depth interviews with 38 farmers and six cocoa experts. Their findings show:

• Farmers directly affected by droughts were 3% more likely to lose forest cover each year compared to those unaffected, signaling a retreat from long-term adaptation.
• Repeated exposure to extreme weather increased the likelihood of farmers adopting maladaptive strategies, such as cutting down trees for livestock farming—providing short-term income but accelerating soil erosion and environmental degradation.
• Psychological barriers play a significant role: when farmers perceive climate challenges as insurmountable, they become less inclined to invest in adaptive solutions, creating self-reinforcing “climate traps.”

“These traps worsen both environmental and economic conditions, leaving farmers with fewer options to break free from the cycle,” notes Dr. Chiapetti.

Dr. da Rocha adds: “Many producers fear that climate change will only intensify, so they opt for immediate relief—even if it undermines long-term resilience.”

The authors argue that addressing these dynamics is not only critical for farmers’ survival but also for global supply chains that depend on crops like cocoa. Policy interventions and corporate sustainability efforts, they suggest, must go beyond financial and technical support to also consider the psychological barriers that hinder effective adaptation.

“By understanding how vulnerable producers make decisions under climate stress, governments, NGOs, and businesses can design better support systems that strengthen resilience and prevent maladaptive spirals,” concludes Dr. Tampe.

To read the full context of the study and its methods, access the full paper available in the Strategic Management Journal.

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