Projected future distribution of cultivated grapes under climate change scenarios

As climate change threatens global agricultural systems, understanding the adaptability of wild plant relatives is crucial. This study explores the potential distribution shifts of cultivated and wild grape species (Vitis spp.) under future climate scenarios. Utilizing the maximum entropy model, the research predicts that by 2080, the suitable areas for wine and table grapes will decrease significantly under the SSP585 scenario, while wild grape species are expected to adapt robustly. These wild species, such as Vitis rotundifolia and Vitis davidii, offer invaluable genetic resources for improving grapevine resilience through breeding and rootstock development. This highlights the importance of wild grape species for maintaining global viticulture in a changing climate.

Global climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity, with rising temperatures and unpredictable precipitation patterns disrupting traditional crop growth. Grapevine cultivation, vital for wine and table grapes, is particularly vulnerable, with climate change potentially reducing the suitability of current growing regions. Wild grape species, however, demonstrate greater resilience to climate stressors, offering hope for future crop adaptation. These wild relatives provide critical genetic diversity that can enhance the climate resilience of cultivated grapes through both breeding programs and rootstock development.

A recent study published (DOI: 10.1093/hr/uhaf104) in July 2025, in Horticulture Research, reveals how wild grapes could be key in helping viticulture adapt to climate change. Researchers from the Agricultural Genomics Institute at Shenzhen, part of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and their collaborators from institutions including University College Dublin and Beijing Forestry University, used the maximum entropy model to forecast the future distribution of cultivated and wild grape species under two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The findings underscore the need to integrate wild grape species into breeding programs to ensure the sustainability of grapevine cultivation under climate stress. The research highlights the adaptability of North American and East Asian wild grape species, which could prove essential for future viticulture strategies.

Using advanced climate models, researchers predict that by 2080, the suitable regions for Vitis vinifera, the primary grape variety for wine and table grapes, will shrink substantially under the SSP585 scenario, with losses of up to 1.5 million km². In contrast, wild grapes such as Vitis rotundifolia and Vitis davidii are expected to thrive, with an increase in their suitable growing areas. These species demonstrate exceptional adaptability to temperature changes, making them valuable genetic resources for breeding programs aimed at enhancing grapevine resilience. The study highlights that wild species are better equipped to handle extreme weather conditions, providing vital traits such as drought and heat tolerance.

Dr. Zhiyao Ma, a leading researcher on the study, states, "The resilience of wild grape species to climate change offers a promising pathway for ensuring the future of viticulture. By utilizing the genetic diversity found in these wild relatives, we can breed grapevines that are better suited to withstand the challenges posed by a changing climate."

This research has profound implications for the future of viticulture. By focusing on wild grape species for breeding and rootstock development, the grape industry can safeguard against climate-induced losses. The findings also point to the importance of conserving wild grape germplasm and using advanced breeding technologies to integrate stress-resistant traits into cultivated varieties. Future research will focus on enhancing the genetic understanding of these wild species, facilitating the development of climate-resilient grape varieties.

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References

DOI

10.1093/hr/uhaf104

Original Source URL

https://doi.org/10.1093/hr/uhaf104

Funding information

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 32300191, No. 32372662), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFD2200700), and Hainan Province Key Research and Development Project (ZDYF2024XDNY156).

About Horticulture Research

Horticulture Research is an open access journal of Nanjing Agricultural University and ranked number one in the Horticulture category of the Journal Citation Reports ™ from Clarivate, 2023. The journal is committed to publishing original research articles, reviews, perspectives, comments, correspondence articles and letters to the editor related to all major horticultural plants and disciplines, including biotechnology, breeding, cellular and molecular biology, evolution, genetics, inter-species interactions, physiology, and the origination and domestication of crops.