Europe takes a bold step toward systems-based chemical risk assessment
Imagine a future where chemical regulation anticipates risks before they spiral into ecological crises. That future may be closer than we think. European researchers are now laying the groundwork for a new paradigm in Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) a
Aarhus University
For decades, EU chemical regulation has struggled with slow approvals, high costs, and ecological surprises. From delayed bans on neonicotinoids to the ongoing decline of pollinators, the current framework often reacts too late. Assessments are fragmented, focusing on individual products rather than the bigger picture. Decisions are locked into binary categories: “safe” or “unsafe” - leaving no room for adaptive management.
The result? A regulatory gridlock that costs industry millions, undermines public trust, and fails to protect biodiversity. This is what a new study lead by Aarhus University shows, and it comes with a solution.
The breakthrough: Systems-first thinking
Researchers behind the Horizon Europe PollinERA project believe the solution lies in reversing the workflow. Instead of starting with product-level tests, they propose a systems-first, tools-second approach. This means using advanced simulations to understand ecosystem dynamics before designing regulatory tools.
One key innovation is the concept of chemical stress budgets, inspired by carbon budgets in climate policy. These budgets set ecosystem-level thresholds for chemical exposure, enabling regulators to manage cumulative impacts rather than isolated risks.
PollinERA in action
PollinERA is an EU-funded research project focused on protecting pollinators by improving how environmental risks from pesticides are assessed. The project aims to move beyond evaluating single pesticides on honeybees and instead develop a systems-based, ecologically realistic assessment that considers multiple pesticides and their effects on a wide range of insect pollinators. The goal is to support better EU policy, help reverse pollinator declines, and reduce harmful pesticide impacts.
PollinERA is more than theory, it’s a working prototype. The project has developed a One System workflow for pollinator risk assessment, integrating interoperable data and models across Europe. This includes cutting-edge techniques like agent-based modelling and TKTD simulations, validated against real-world monitoring data.
Fact box:
TKTD (Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic) simulations are mathematical models that describe how a toxic substance is absorbed, distributed, metabolized, and excreted by an organism (toxicokinetics), and how these internal concentrations lead to harmful effects over time (e.g., mortality, growth inhibition) (toxicodynamics).
While the initial focus is on pollinators, the approach is transferable to other species, stressors, and ecosystems, making it a blueprint for next-generation Environmental Risk Assessment.
Why it matters
- Environmental protection: Proactively prevents biodiversity loss and ecological collapse.
- Economic efficiency: Cuts approval times and compliance costs, saving industry millions.
- Policy alignment: Supports EU Green Deal, Zero Pollution, and Biodiversity Strategy goals.
- Innovation incentives: Creates predictable pathways for sustainable chemistry and biosolutions.
Building momentum
The PollinERA team has been busy engaging stakeholders: regulators, industry, NGOs, and EU advisors through a series of workshops. Publications are rolling out, including a policy brief and a technical support document, as well as a Viewpoint article in Environmental Science & Technology, one of the field’s most influential journals.
According to lead author Christopher John Topping: “By embedding systems thinking into regulation, Europe can move from fragmented decisions to adaptive, whole-system management strengthening competitiveness, resilience, and environmental protection.”
What’s next?
The vision is clear: a fully interoperable ERA framework across chemical sectors by 2032. Steps include pilot projects, open-source simulation tools, and integrated monitoring systems. If successful, this approach could transform not only pesticide regulation but the entire landscape of chemical risk management.
Learn more
Contact
Christopher John Topping, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University. Tel.: +45 93522503 or mail: cjt@agro.au.dk
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