Expert Q&A on why alcohol use is declining in Canada
Unpacking possible reasons for declining alcohol consumption in Canada.
image: Dr. Tim Naimi of the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research at the University of Victoria in Canada. CREDIT: Darren Stone.
Credit: Credit Darren Stone.
Lately, there has been a lot of focus on declining alcohol sales in North America, and speculation as to why that might be. Dr. Tim Naimi, an alcohol epidemiology researcher and director of the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, Canada, unpacks possible reasons why.
Q. Is the decline real?
A. Based on alcohol sales data (which is more reliable than self-reported survey data), the decline appears to be real. According to Statistics Canada, per capita alcohol sales (the average amount sold per person aged 15 years and older) declined for the fourth consecutive year, from 8.3 litres of ethanol (roughly 487 standard drinks per year) in 2020-21 to 6.8 litres (399 standard drinks) in 2024-25, a rather dramatic decline of 18 per cent.
Alcohol sales have also declined recently in the United States, so this is not a Canada-only phenomenon.
Q. What are the possible contributing factors?
A. There are many possible contributors to consider, some of which overlap with one another. There have been increased concerns about the health effects of alcohol, including moderate or low levels of use. High inflation in Canada means people have less disposable income, Canada has recently experienced a large influx of immigrants, many of whom come from countries with lower alcohol use than Canada, like India. Alcohol use among young people has also been declining in recent years.
There are several factors that might be having an impact, but we are less sure of. For example, alcohol consumption was at an all-time high during the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is logical that consumption would decline with the waning of the pandemic. However, consumption has now fallen well below pre-COVID levels. There has been an increase in no- and low-alcohol products, but it’s unclear to what extent this category is replacing traditional alcohol sales versus adding to overall consumption. Evidence on whether cannabis, which is now legal in Canada, is being substituted for alcohol is mixed. The rise in GLP-1 agonist medications has also grown dramatically in Canada; in addition to reducing interest in eating, these medications also reduce interest in alcohol and are being studied to treat alcohol use disorders.
One factor we are fairly certain isn’t having a population-level impact is the boycott of U.S. alcohol products, as this came several years after alcohol sales began to decline.
Q. What is the possible impact of the decline?
A. Over time, reductions in consumption should translate into gains for public health and savings for the health-care system and taxpayers, as alcohol-related costs exceed tax revenues. While reductions in alcohol sales adversely affect alcohol-related industries, reallocating dollars spent on alcohol benefits other sectors of the economy.
Ironically, adopting minimum pricing policies for alcohol could both improve public health and increase industry revenues by implementing what amounts to government-sponsored price collusion at the low end of the alcohol market, where profit margins are otherwise low.
Finally, although there has been a clear trend towards lower alcohol use in recent years, future sales may stabilize or reverse course. It remains to be seen whether the current trend is a long-term development or a fleeting one.