Expert Q&A on why military emissions are missing from climate accounting

As global leaders intensify efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, one major contributor remains largely invisible: war. 

Researchers from the University of Victoria-led Accelerating Community Energy Transformation (ACET) initiative explain why military and conflict-related emissions are not being counted and how this blind spot undermines climate action. 

Q. Why are military emissions not fully counted in global climate reporting? 

A. The gap stems largely from international policy decisions dating back to the Kyoto Protocol, when the United States successfully lobbied to exclude reporting military emissions on national security grounds. While the Paris Agreement later introduced voluntary reporting, the result has been inconsistent and incomplete data. Many major military powers either submit partial figures or none at all. This creates what researchers call the “military emissions gap,” where actual emissions far exceed what is officially reported. Without mandatory, standardized reporting, one of the world’s most carbon-intensive sectors remains outside meaningful climate accountability frameworks. 

Q. How significant are emissions from war and military activity? 

A. Military emissions are substantial—even in peacetime. Estimates suggest armed forces and their supply chains account for about 5.5 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, which would rank them fourth among the world’s largest emitters if treated as a country. During conflict, emissions rise dramatically. For example, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has generated hundreds of millions of tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, while recent conflicts in Gaza and Iran have added tens of millions more. These figures include not only direct combat emissions but also indirect impacts such as infrastructure destruction and reconstruction, fires and disrupted transportation systems. 

Q. What role does reconstruction play in the impact of war on climate change? 

A. Reconstruction is often the largest source of emissions associated with war. While combat activities like jets and artillery generate emissions, they represent only a small portion of the total. In Gaza, for example, the majority of emissions are projected to come from rebuilding homes, roads, hospitals and utilities destroyed during the conflict. This rebuilding process requires massive amounts of carbon-intensive materials like cement and steel. In effect, the climate cost of war extends far beyond the battlefield, with long-term emissions tied to recovery and redevelopment efforts. 

Q. What needs to change to address the military emissions gap? 

A. Closing this gap requires both policy reform and political will. We argue that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change should make military emissions reporting mandatory and develop clear methods for attributing emissions generated during conflicts. There is also a growing case for assigning responsibility to aggressor states for the full climate costs of war, including reconstruction. Institutions like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change could play a key role by dedicating future assessments to conflict-related emissions. The methodologies already exist—what’s missing is global agreement to apply them. 

Q. How does this issue connect to global climate goals and the UN Sustainable Development Goals? 

A. This research aligns closely with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13: Climate Action. Failing to account for military emissions undermines global efforts to limit warming and weakens the integrity of climate science and policy. It also intersects with SDG 16 (peace, justice and strong Institutions), as transparent reporting and accountability are essential for both climate governance and conflict resolution. As military spending continues to outpace investments in clean energy and climate finance, addressing this imbalance is critical to achieving long-term sustainability and global stability. 

Read the full article: https://theconversation.com/wars-destroy-lives-and-the-climate-why-arent-we-counting-military-emissions-281129 

This article was co-authored by researchers who are part of the Accelerating Community Energy Transformation initiative: Curran Crawford, Basma Majerbi, Madeleine McPherson (University of Victoria) and Samaneh Shahgaldi (Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières).