Europe’s snakes under climate threat: warming reduces habitats, Balkan region emerges as refuge
image: Modelled projections indicate a widespread decline in ecological suitability for snakes across Europe, with cold-adapted species demonstrating particular vulnerability to global warming.
Credit: Pablo Deschepper
Date: May 20, 2026
Brussels, Belgium: Climate change poses an existential threat to ectothermic reptiles across Europe, and snakes—reliant on stable thermal niches—face severe habitat shifts, according to a comprehensive ecological modeling study published in Biological Diversity. The research, analyzing 31 European snake species, maps current and future habitat suitability under two climate scenarios (moderate SSP245, high-emission SSP585), revealing stark geographic disparities in snake survival prospects.
Researchers used ecological niche modeling (ENM) with MaxEnt algorithms, integrating bioclimatic variables and land-cover data to project suitability changes for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. Results show Western Europe (Iberian Peninsula, France) will see sharp declines in suitable habitats, driven by rising temperatures and drought. Cold-tolerant species like Vipera berus and Vipera seoanei face severe range contractions, with some vulnerable to extinction.
In contrast, the Balkan Peninsula emerges as a critical climate refugium. Its rugged topography and mixed Mediterranean-continental climate create microrefugia, favoring heat-tolerant species such as Dolichophis caspius. Snake richness is projected to rise here, highlighting topography’s role in buffering climate stress.
Niche analysis further splits species into four groups: Iberian, Balkan, cold-tolerant, and other. PCA shows cold-adapted species diverge strongly from heat-tolerant taxa, with temperature and precipitation as key limiting factors.
The study underscores conservation urgency: habitat fragmentation compounds climate risks, limiting snake dispersal. Protecting structurally diverse landscapes with microclimatic refugia is vital. These findings provide actionable insights for targeted conservation and climate adaptation strategies for Europe’s threatened snake fauna.
Original Source
Deschepper, Pablo. 2025. “Snakes in Europe Under Climate Change: Is It Getting Too Hot for the Cold-Blooded?.” Biological Diversity 2(2-3): 73–84.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bod2.70005-
Keywords
Biodiversity, climate change, herpetofauna, snakes
About the Author
Pablo Deschepper (First author and corresponding author), Postdoctoral Researcher, Biology Department, Royal Museum for Central Africa, and Nature Department, Institute of Natural Sciences, Belgium. His research focuses on analyzing population genetic structures across spatial and temporal scales using advanced genetic tools.
About the Journal
Biological Diversity (ISSN: 2994-4139) is a new open-access, high-impact, English-language journal, devoted to advancing biodiversity conservation, enhancing ecosystem services, and promoting the sustainable use of resources under global change. It features innovative research addressing the global biodiversity crisis.