New study explores energy and resource impacts of quantum computing

As quantum computing moves closer to large-scale deployment, new research is examining its future energy, water, and material demands.  

David McCollum, an Oak Ridge National Laboratory distinguished scientist, is leading the project. McCollum is also a joint faculty professor in the Center for Energy, Transportation, and Environmental Policy (CETEP) at the Howard H. Baker Jr. School of Public Policy and Public Affairs at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. The work aims to inform the rollout of quantum infrastructure over the coming decades. It examines technologies evolving from experimental environments to commercial-scale use. Quantum computing is expected to unlock advances in drug discovery, material science, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.

 “Quantum computing presents extraordinary opportunities, from accelerating scientific discovery to solving complex optimization problems,” McCollum said. “At the same time, it introduces new questions about the energy, water, and materials required to operate these systems at scale. Our research aims to get ahead of those questions before resource and supply chain constraints start to bite.” 

The research is detailed in two recent papers published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition and Nature Reviews Clean Technology.  

The two studies represent the first attempt to quantify the energy demands of large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computers. They also examine the physical resource demands of these systems at scale. Some experts expect quantum-accelerated data centers to operate in the late 2030s and beyond. McCollum and colleagues focus on superconducting quantum bit (“qubit”) technologies, one of today’s most mature approaches. Google, IBM, and other tech companies have invested heavily in research toward developing such systems.  

Among the key insights of the study: 

• Electricity demand could be significant, but within feasible ranges 

• Water and helium-3 (a rare isotope) demand could constrain growth 

• Technological efficiency gains do not guarantee reductions in energy demand 

• Leading quantum countries generally have not prioritized energy and resource impacts in their national quantum roadmaps 
• Because computing technology evolves quickly, it is never too early for research that aims to navigate a robust path for quantum

In addition to the published papers, McCollum’s team developed a public-facing dashboard on quantum technology pathways. The dashboard visualizes energy, resource, and infrastructure implications across deployment scenarios. Oak Ridge National Laboratory also has a dedicated website for the project. 

The project reflects CETEP’s focus on connecting science to real-world policy challenges. As communities and energy systems respond to growing artificial intelligence demands, this work expands the conversation to next-generation computing.

While quantum computing is not yet widely deployed, its long-term resource demands have received limited attention. This project addresses that gap. As energy systems face increasing pressure from AI and data centers, understanding what comes next will be critical. That understanding could help avoid similar constraints at scale.