The findings reveal that, although the ensemble mean of the ECMWF model has limited forecasting ability for extreme cold events after two weeks, some ensemble members exhibit significantly high forecasting skill. The members with high forecasting skill can accurately predict the rapid change of surface air temperature and the intensity of the minimum temperature during an extreme cold event. This mainly depends on the accurate prediction of the atmospheric circulation situation in Eurasia (sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height).

The National Natural Science Foundation of China initiated a major research program to study formation and response mechanism of Air Pollution Complex in China. Through the program’s 76 projects, scientists have achieved tremendous advances in air pollution research. To raise awareness of air pollution complex, the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences recently published a special issue on the topic.