Plasma metabolites for identifying bacterial infection in acute-on-chronic liver failure: A prospective multicenter study

Background and Aims

Bacterial infection is a key cause of mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). In this study, we aimed to identify metabolite biomarkers and develop a novel machine learning model for early identification of bacterial infection in ACLF.

Methods

Based on a prospective multicenter cohort from 14 centers, 1,314 patients with acute-on-chronic liver disease were enrolled, including those with ACLF and non-ACLF. Plasma samples at admission were collected for metabolomics profiling. Patients were randomly divided into discovery (n = 921) and validation (n = 393) sets. Machine learning was used to develop diagnostic models. The win ratio method was employed to assess the risk stratification capability of the models.

Results

Bacterial infection occurred in 198 of the 451 ACLF patients and 132 of the 863 non-ACLF patients. Infection altered the plasma metabolome, especially in lipid, amino acid, and xenobiotic metabolic pathways. Models for bacterial infection in ACLF (five metabolites) and non-ACLF (six metabolites) demonstrated superior discrimination in the discovery (AUCs: 0.881 and 0.935, respectively) and validation sets (AUCs: 0.835 and 0.889, respectively) compared with C-reactive protein, white blood cell count, procalcitonin, and the best composite clinical model. Metabolic risk stratification based on the models effectively predicted 90-day outcomes (all-cause death, organ failure, sepsis, new-onset acute decompensation, and systemic inflammatory response syndrome).

Conclusions

This study delineated the metabolic landscape of AoCLD associated with bacterial infection. Based on novel metabolite biomarkers, we developed diagnostic models for bacterial infection tailored to the ACLF disease spectrum. These models outperformed conventional indicators. A risk stratification strategy based on baseline metabolic perturbations can indicate the risk of 90-day outcomes. Plasma metabolic biomarkers in these models may serve as reference indicators to enhance precise diagnosis and personalized management in patients with AoCLD.

Full text

https://www.xiahepublishing.com/2310-8819/JCTH-2026-00384

The study was recently published in the Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology.

The Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology (JCTH) is owned by the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University and published by XIA & HE Publishing Inc. JCTH publishes high quality, peer reviewed studies in the translational and clinical human health sciences of liver diseases. JCTH has established high standards for publication of original research, which are characterized by a study’s novelty, quality, and ethical conduct in the scientific process as well as in the communication of the research findings. Each issue includes articles by leading authorities on topics in hepatology that are germane to the most current challenges in the field. Special features include reports on the latest advances in drug development and technology that are relevant to liver diseases. Regular features of JCTH also include editorials, correspondences and invited commentaries on rapidly progressing areas in hepatology. All articles published by JCTH, both solicited and unsolicited, must pass our rigorous peer review process.

Follow us on X: @xiahepublishing

Follow us on LinkedIn: Xia & He Publishing Inc.