*Free* From disarmament to preventing reemergence: Adapting to the future chemical weapons threat

In the 25 years since its implementation, the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) has demonstrated great success in the wholesale ban of the production, use and stockpiling of chemical weapons worldwide. However, Tuan Nguyen argues in this Policy Forum, to continue to be effective, the CWC and its implementing body, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), must adapt to the future chemical weapons threat. “After 25 years, the CWC and the OPCW are at a crossroads,” writes Nguyen. “The path that the OPCW 2.0 takes will determine whether the CWC continues to be celebrated as a model for multilaterally negotiated arms control and disarmament and a central pillar to our strategy to counter [weapons of mass destruction] threats or risks becoming less effective in the future international security environment.” Since its inception, the OPCW’s primary mission has been the elimination of chemical weapon (CW) stockpiles and production capacities and prevention of CW’s acquisition and use. That mission has largely been successful – by 2023, all remaining declared CW stockpiles and equipment are expected to be eliminated. According to Nguyen, this landmark achievement also represents a fundamental shift for the OPCW, which will need to transition from an organization focused on CW disarmament to one dominated by preventing CW reemergence. In preparation for the next CWC review conference in 2023, Nguyen highlights the main opportunities and challenges for a next-generation “OPCW 2.0.” According to the author, these include reinforcing the international norms against the use of CWs, which may have weakened in light of several recent war actions and assassination attempts. What’s more, new monitoring and verification tools are likely needed to keep pace with advancements in science and technology and a proliferation of novel methods for small-scale chemical synthesis and production. “The greatest challenge for the OPCW 2.0 is not in the legal framework of the CWC or the tools needed to adapt, but rather the political will to use them,” Nguyen writes.