5-Dec-2025
New approach narrows uncertainty in future warming and remaining carbon budget for 2 °C
National Institute for Environmental StudiesPeer-Reviewed Publication
A new study led by researchers at the National Institute for Environmental Studies, and published in One Earth, analyzes projections from state-of-the-art Earth System Models and narrows the uncertainty of the amount of additional CO₂ that can be emitted before crossing critical climate thresholds. By accounting for feedback between the climate and carbon cycle, the team finds that the remaining budget for limiting warming to 2 °C since 2020 is approximately 460 billion tons of carbon. This is higher than the average value predicted by the models (352 billion tons). However, given that current global anthropogenic carbon emissions are approximately 11 billion tons, the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 2°C is extremely small. The refined numbers provide governments, businesses and communities with clearer guidance for setting emission reduction targets and developing effective climate change countermeasures.
- Journal
- One Earth
- Funder
- the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan, the Ministry of Environment of Japan, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science