The most sophisticated modelling to date forecasts that under the current global emissions pathway the Great Barrier Reef could lose most of its coral by the end of the century, but curbing climate change and strategic management will help coral resilience.

A study by researchers from the UK, Ghana and the USA - and led by the University of Plymouth (UK) used thermal imaging technology and other sensors to measure the leaf temperatures found at CO₂ levels forecast to occur in 2050. It found that temperatures within the forest canopies rose by around 1.3°C as a direct consequence of increases in CO₂ – from an average of 21.5°C under current conditions to 22.8°C at the predicted 2050 CO₂ levels. They believe that as well as having a direct impact on leaf pore structure, it could impact trees’ ability to transmit water back into the environment, which would have a knock-on effect on the water cycle globally.