Heterogeneity in host populations drives the evolution of more virulent pathogens
The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, SOKENDAIPeer-Reviewed Publication
Heterogeneity in host populations significantly influences pathogen evolution, yet most theories assume uniformity. This study uses a meta-population model to examine how local environmental heterogeneity—factors like migration, birth, carrying capacity, and immunity loss—affects pathogen virulence. The findings reveal that greater heterogeneity consistently results in higher virulence compared to homogeneous environments. These results suggest that previous models underestimated evolving virulence, raising concerns that urbanization and increasing environmental diversity may accelerate the emergence of more lethal pathogens.Heterogeneity in host populations significantly influences pathogen evolution, yet most theories assume uniformity. This study uses a meta-population model to examine how local environmental heterogeneity—factors like migration, birth, carrying capacity, and immunity loss—affects pathogen virulence. The findings reveal that greater heterogeneity consistently results in higher virulence compared to homogeneous environments. These results suggest that previous models underestimated evolving virulence, raising concerns that urbanization and increasing environmental diversity may accelerate the emergence of more lethal pathogens.
- Journal
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Funder
- JSPS KAKENHI