Tracking net-zero carbon debt: who is responsible for overshoot of the 1.5°C climate limit?
Peer-Reviewed Publication
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 11-Aug-2025 15:11 ET (11-Aug-2025 19:11 GMT/UTC)
What is a fair way forward after the 1.5°C warming limit of the Paris Agreement has been breached? In a new study, IIASA researchers explore the concept of ‘net-zero carbon debt’ — a measure for assessing who bears greater responsibility for minimizing the climate overshoot.
In a paper published in National Science Review, a team of Chinese scientists develop an AI-powered framework designed to achieve real-time, seamless retrieval of PM10 concentrations. This breakthrough addresses the challenges of spatial gaps and nighttime observation deficiencies in current satellite-based PM10 data. It extends daily data to high-resolution, real-time hourly insights, providing strong support for precise dust storm monitoring.
The findings reveal that, although the ensemble mean of the ECMWF model has limited forecasting ability for extreme cold events after two weeks, some ensemble members exhibit significantly high forecasting skill. The members with high forecasting skill can accurately predict the rapid change of surface air temperature and the intensity of the minimum temperature during an extreme cold event. This mainly depends on the accurate prediction of the atmospheric circulation situation in Eurasia (sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height).