Sell-side analysts fail to adequately adjust stock forecasts after Fed meetings
Peer-Reviewed Publication
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 8-Nov-2026 16:16 ET (8-Nov-2026 21:16 GMT/UTC)
New research however shows that stock market analysts generally give a collective "meh" around the time of Fed meetings when it comes to forecasting how much stocks will trade for in the future, called a price target. Despite dozens of Fed meetings between 2000 and 2020 where interest rates were either raised or lowered, researchers at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management found that price targets among analysts working at investment houses and brokerages were only adjusted for 18.5 percent of companies in the two weeks before and after Fed meetings. As a result, those targets -- which investors use when deciding to buy or sell stocks -- lose accuracy after a Fed meeting, either overpredicting future stock prices when rates rise or underpredicting them when rates drop.
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