Prediction is the goal and test of all science, one might argue. Meteorologists have been curious about the inherent limits of weather forecasting ever since the dawn of numerical weather prediction in the late 1950s. Now, a new study published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences offers a bold answer: even under perfect conditions, there is a fundamental limit—and it is about 129 days.

New findings challenge the assumption that drivers should keep a functioning gasoline vehicle until the end of its life before switching to an elective vehicle (EV). Despite the carbon footprint of manufacturing the electric car, the study shows, replacing even a brand-new gasoline vehicle with an EV results in lower lifetime greenhouse gas emissions. In the United States, personal vehicles are responsible for more carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions than all other forms of transportation combined, including air, rail, water, and commercial trucking and busing. This dominance makes the transition away from gasoline-powered cars, SUVs, and trucks central to climate policy. Battery electric vehicles (EVs) generally produce far fewer lifetime greenhouse gas emissions than internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles, and their climate advantages are expected to grow as electricity grids become cleaner. However, while the emission benefits of choosing an EV over an ICE vehicle during a new vehicle purchase are well established, just when to retire a working gasoline-powered vehicle and replace it with an EV remains an open question. Keeping the gasoline vehicle on the road avoids the additional manufacturing emissions of producing a new EV, but replacing it early could deliver substantial savings because EVs generate far fewer emissions during operation. To address this question, Elliott Campbell and Roland Geyer estimated the life-cycle CO₂ emissions associated with keeping an ICE vehicle in use versus scrapping it early and replacing it with an EV. They conducted life-cycle analyses across a broad range of retirement scenarios and vehicle classes, taking into account variation in powertrain, battery size and manufacturing, electricity sources, and retirement year. According to the findings, replacing a functioning internal-combustion vehicle with an EV can reduce carbon emissions across a broad range of conditions, even when the gasoline vehicle is relatively new. The authors argue that this result makes vehicle scrappage-and-replacement programs a potentially powerful climate policy.

Study tracked association between death rates and tree canopy changes across 11 years in Chicago. Overall tree canopy per year was less important than year-to-year changes for mortality risk. South and West side neighborhoods experience hot summers, greater absolute canopy losses and higher mortality. Planting 14,000 trees per year was estimated to save 105 lives annually.

A team of Virginia Tech researchers recently published a study in Coastal Engineering demonstrating that storm surge behavior follows a set of distinct, repeatable patterns that depend on both storm characteristics and coastal geography. The findings could help improve forecasting, engineering design, and coastal planning as communities prepare for stronger storms and rising seas.