Integrating credit and debit data for enhanced insights into borrowing behavior and predictive modeling of credit card delinquency
Peer-Reviewed Publication
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 21-May-2026 01:15 ET (21-May-2026 05:15 GMT/UTC)
Researchers from BI Norwegian Business School and NHH Norwegian School of Economics have developed a new behavioral credit-risk model that integrates credit and debit transactions. The model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art machine learning methods in predicting credit card delinquency and offers clearer insight into the behavioral drivers behind repayment problems.
Abstract
Purpose – This study aims to explore the impacts of U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty on crude oil markets and further reveal the specific influence mechanisms.
Design/methodology/approach – This paper introduces a debt ceiling uncertainty index based on news reports and selects six representative crude oil futures and spot markets to investigate the heterogeneous impacts of U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty on crude oil markets. More specifically, on the one hand, the nonparametric causality-inquantiles test method is used to discuss the asymmetric impacts of debt ceiling uncertainty on the different conditional distributions of crude oil series. On the other hand, the dynamic effects of debt ceiling uncertainty on crude oil markets are analyzed, combining with the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model.
Findings – The conclusions of this paper are as follows: First, the U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty has obvious nonlinear impacts on each crude oil market, and the effects are greater under the normal condition of crude oil markets rather than under their extreme conditions. Second, the shocks from debt ceiling uncertainty to crude oil markets are mainly illustrated as negative and can be significantly enhanced by important debt-related events. Over time, the reactions of crude oil markets turn to weak positive and gradually dissipate after 6 months. Finally, enterprise production, investor sentiment and government shutdown play important roles as transmission intermediaries for the influence of debt ceiling uncertainty on the crude oil market.
Originality/value – The findings are beneficial for investors to accurately judge oil price trends and prevent investment losses caused by debt risks and also help producers prevent the impacts of crude oil price changes on production and operation activities. Moreover, it is conducive to the management department to maintain the stability of the crude oil market, thus enabling the crude oil financial market to better serve the real economy.
The ubiquitous plastic beverage bottle makes up about half of plastic waste collected for recycling in the U.S. Most recycled plastic is processed domestically, but a portion is traded overseas. A new study from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign draws on citizen science data to investigate how the global plastic waste trade contributes to litter along coastlines and waterways in importing countries.
A new study led by the UvA suggests that even a fictional personality system, the Hogwarts houses from Harry Potter, can reveal meaningful patterns in real-world entrepreneurial mindsets. The research team, headed by Martin Obschonka, analysed nearly 800,000 responses to TIME Magazine Harry Potter Personality Quiz, discovering that regions with more ‘Gryffindors’ and ‘Slytherins’ tend to have higher start-up activity. The project involved collaborators from NEOMA Business School, The University of St. Gallen, and the University of British Columbia.
A new study shows that in 2023, substance use disorders led to nearly $93 billion in lost productivity in the United States from missed work, reduced job performance, inability to work, and lost household productivity. The novel analysis appearing in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, published by Elsevier, highlights the need for prevention and treatment strategies to reduce harm and costs.
Abstract
Purpose – With the increasing prevalence of common institutional ownership, a burgeoning literature has emerged to examine its economic consequences. However, the majority of existing studies focus on the product market and firm-level behavior and decision-making. Research on the impact of common institutional ownership on overall business strategy remains scarce. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the influence and mechanism of common institutional ownership on business strategy aggressiveness and explore the factors
that affect the relationship between the two.
Design/methodology/approach – We empirically examine the relationship between common institutional ownership and business strategy aggressiveness based on a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2023. In addition, we perform a series of endogeneity and robustness tests to validate our findings, including the Heckman two-stage tests, propensity score matching ordinary least squares, instrumental variables approach, placebo tests and remeasurement of key variables.
Findings – We find that common institutional ownership significantly reduces business strategy aggressiveness. Mechanism analyses suggest that the anti-competitive effects lead to a significant negative correlation between the two. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the inhibitory effect of common institutional ownership on business strategy aggressiveness is more pronounced when common institutional investors are long-term oriented, the firms are state-owned and operate in non-technology-intensive industries, and the level of regional legalization is relatively low.
Originality/value – Our research provides novel evidence on how common institutional ownership shapes business strategy and presents implications for policymakers, corporations and investors.